Economic and financial analysis by Michala Marcussen, Group Chief Economist.
Fixed income and equities linked by low inflation expectations
The US yield curve is flattening to an extent not seen since 2007. The flattening of the yield curve is often considered a sign that the economic cycle is maturing, as it comes with tighter monetary policy. The inversion of the curve is considered a bellwether of a recession. Meanwhile, long bond yields are currently very low, at 2.35 % on 10-year maturities, vs. a 4 % average in 2007.
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US tax strategy: Europe must be vigilant
The text of the US tax reform bill passed by the Senate during the night of December 1 now has to be reconciled with the version passed by the House of Representatives on November 16, before the final bill is presented for vote by both Houses, and signed by the White House. The Republicans are hoping to finalize this process before Christmas.
What is the economic environment as Macron’s term begins?
Whereas the two previous five-year presidential terms had been marked by major slumps – a global recession in 2008 and 2009 and the euro zone crisis in 2011 and 2013 – the new French president will benefit from a far healthier economy as his term begins.
The Economic Research Department analyses, monitors and drafts forecasts/scenarios regarding global economic and financial developments on behalf of the Societe Generale group as a whole. Its experts share their vision through economic, financial and socio-political studies and articles.