The Dollar conundrum
When it comes to financial market sell-offs, the US dollar can usually be counted on to act as a safe haven and gain in strength. And this is true even when the catalyst resides within the US borders. As global equity markets suffered one of their worst days in over half a decade on Monday 5 February, the US dollar gained 0.5% against other major currencies, as measured on the US Dollar Index (DXY).
Michala Mercussen, Group Chief Economist, explains the latest trends around the US dollar.
US tax refrom: Europe must be vigilant
The text of the US tax reform bill passed by the Senate during the night of December 1 now has to be reconciled with the version passed by the House of Representatives on November 16, before the final bill is presented for vote by both Houses, and signed by the White House. The Republicans are hoping to finalize this process before Christmas.
Trade globalisation: going into reverse?
Globalisation has been the dominant force in the development of the world economy in the post-Cold War era, making the world’s economies more interconnected and more inter-dependent than ever before. This wave of globalisation is the second in the past 200 years. The first wave began in the first half of the 19th century, powered by a combination of technological breakthroughs and liberal trade policy in continental Europe. It collapsed when the Great Depression of the 1930s led to a widespread retreat into protectionism.
More life in the expansion
We expect the economic momentum to be upheld in 2018. Tax cuts in the United States, still accommodative monetary policies and the dynamics of the cycle offer further life to the global expansion.
From 2019, global growth is likely to decelerate amid with the gradual normalisation of monetary policies in the major advanced economies, fading impetus from the US tax cuts and moderately higher inflation.