Is a recession on the cards for 2020?

Michala Marcussen, Group Chief Economist, explains the latest economic trends.

Michala Marcussen on Bloomberg TV

U.S. economy heading towards a more substantial slowdown

Michala Marcussen, Group Chief Economist at Societe Generale, talks about European, U.S., China's economies and policies. She speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."

Watch the interview on Bloomberg TV

Manus Cranny and Yousef Gamal El-Din and Michala Marcussen

How would a 'Hard Brexit' affect the U.K. economy?

Michala Marcussen, group chief economist at Societe Generale, talks about the Brexit negotiations and the implications for the British economy. She speaks with Manus Cranny and Yousef Gamal El-Din on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East."

Watch the Interview on Bloomberg TV

Bitcoins, cash and tulips

Bitcoins generated much excitement in 2017, starting off the year valued at just over $1 000 per bitcoin and closing the year at around $10 000, having peaked at close to $19 000 in mid-December 2017. While the extreme volatility of Bitcoin generates both spectacular gains and devastating losses, it significantly reduces the ability of the crypto-currency to serve as a means of payment; the purpose for which it was originally designed. Michala Marcussen, Group Chief Economist, explains the latest trends around the bitcoin.

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Soap bubble on City of London background

A financial bubble: to be or not to be?

While Wall Street is setting record upon record, many observers are asking whether a financial bubble might be on the cards. But do bubbles exist? In 2013, the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to two researchers with opposing points of view: for E. Fama, bubbles do not exist because the markets are efficient; for R. Shiller, bubbles exist because human behaviours often deviate from rationality.


bridge in the fog

Hitting stall speed

Global activity has entered a synchronised slowdown and a further loss of momentum is expected over the 2020-21 horizon. Against this backdrop, the major central banks are set to further ease monetary policy. Several factors are driving the global slowdown. In China, past policy tightening and on-going trade tensions with the US mark headwinds. Turning to the US, the corporate profit cycle is maturing, and we expect that efforts to rebuild margins to weigh on investment and employment. The fiscal stance is also set to deliver less of an impulse to the US economy and we see limited room for any major policy shift on this front ahead of the Presidential election in 2020. Headwinds from the slowdown in global trade are weighing heavily on euro area manufacturing. Brexit uncertainty marks an additional headwind along with ongoing trade policy and geopolitical uncertainty.


Dollar coin

Dollar strength may be challenged by fiscal policy

President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to ease aggressively and has complained that China and Europe are taking unfair currency advantage. And, in early August, Washington designated China a currency manipulator. The ever lower and flatter American yield curve, however, signals concern that monetary easing will struggle to revive the economy. Further evidence hereof resides in the coinciding strength of the US dollar and Gold.


Man on a japanese trading floor

What if the Japan is the good scenario?

The impressive expansion, that saw Japan become one of world’s richest nations, came to an abrupt end almost three decades ago with bursting of the bubble. Subsequent domestic policy errors combined with negative external shocks, and not least the 1997 Asia Crisis, sent the Japanese economy into the icy grip of deflation. Exiting this state was not made any easier by a rapidly ageing population and the 2007/08 Great Financial Crisis.


Magnifier over a map of France

Leveraging the French paradoxes

Two years into his Presidency, Emmanuel Macron has delivered a flurry of reforms that aim to leverage the strength in the paradoxes of the French economy: high productivity yet improvable education, enviable demographics yet low labour utilisation, relatively low poverty rates yet surprisingly low social mobility…