Economic growth is back

Olivier Garnier, Group Chief Economist at Societe Generale, explains how, for the first time in a long while, all the main regions of the world economy are returning to growth.

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What is the economic environment as Macron’s term begins?

Whereas the two previous five-year presidential terms had been marked by major slumps – a global recession in 2008 and 2009 and the euro zone crisis in 2011 and 2013 – the new French president will benefit from a far healthier economy as his term begins.

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2017 economic prospects

The new Trump administration’s first steps in the United States, upcoming elections in France and Germany… 2017 looks like being a particularly uncertain year. What could the consequences be for developed and emerging economies? Olivier Garnier, Societe Generale’s Chief Economist, answers our questions.


ScenarioEco: Vigorous activity

The global economic expansion is strengthening and broadening, driven by the industrial and trade recovery.
In 2017-2018, global GDP growth is expected to reach its best level since 2011 in spite of geopolitical risks and slowing Chine GDP, but it is likely to slow thereafter. Some drivers behind this expansion are fragile, however: fiscal stimulus in the US, upholding of high risk appetite, gradual and well communicated withdrawal of monetary accommodation.....

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Italy: companies' difficulties are hampering investment and growth potential

Italian companies' financial situation started to deteriorate from the 2000s, with the end of productivity gains in the Italian economy. The increase in unit labour costs and the continued erosion of their competitiveness weakened companies’ returns. All the while, labour market rigidities substantially restricted their ability to adjust. As a result, there was a sharp decline in corporate margins.