Quarterly economic forecasts for the main developing and emerging countries.
December 2017 - More life in the expansion
We expect the economic momentum to be upheld in 2018. Tax cuts in the United States, still accommodative monetary policies and the dynamics of the cycle offer further life to the global expansion.
From 2019, global growth is likely to decelerate amid with the gradual normalisation of monetary policies in the major advanced economies, fading impetus from the US tax cuts and moderately higher inflation.
Trade globalisation: going into reverse?
Globalisation has been the dominant force in the development of the world economy in the post-Cold War era, making the world’s economies more interconnected and more inter-dependent than ever before. This wave of globalisation is the second in the past 200 years. The first wave began in the first half of the 19th century, powered by a combination of technological breakthroughs and liberal trade policy in continental Europe. It collapsed when the Great Depression of the 1930s led to a widespread retreat into protectionism.
Italy: companies' difficulties are hampering investment and growth potential
Italian companies' financial situation started to deteriorate from the 2000s, with the end of productivity gains in the Italian economy. The increase in unit labour costs and the continued erosion of their competitiveness weakened companies’ returns. All the while, labour market rigidities substantially restricted their ability to adjust. As a result, there was a sharp decline in corporate margins.
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The Economic Research Department analyses, monitors and drafts forecasts/scenarios regarding global economic and financial developments on behalf of the Societe Generale group as a whole. Its experts share their vision through economic, financial and socio-political studies and articles.