Quarterly economic forecasts for the main developing and emerging countries.
Less synchronised growth, rising uncertainties
Global growth is expected to clock in at 3.8% in 2018 and slow to 3.6% in 2019; a rate of expansion that is still firm and comparable to that of 2017 (+ 3.7%). That said, growth is less synchronized. Activity in Europe remains above trend, but is softening in the wake of the deceleration of world trade, while fiscal stimulus measures are prolonging the expansion in the United States.
Asia: growth jeopardised by the trade war
Trade tensions between China and the United States represent a major risk for the export-oriented Asian region. Economies can be affected via the global value chain, Chinese growth and competitive devaluation (although the latter is unlikely). Only India is less vulnerable to this risk.
Monetary Policy: back to normal?
The 2008 financial crisis witnessed unprecedented policy responses from the world’s major central banks. Main central banks cut their policy rate to near 0%, exhausting the conventional monetary options. Then, to further ease financial conditions, they started to design a variety of unorthodox monetary policy tools commonly labelled as “unconventional monetary policies”. These have included “lower-for-longer” forward guidance on the short-term rate, large-scale asset purchases, large-scale liquidity provis.
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The Economic Research Department analyses, monitors and drafts forecasts/scenarios regarding global economic and financial developments on behalf of the Societe Generale group as a whole. Its experts share their vision through economic, financial and socio-political studies and articles.