Quarterly economic forecasts for the main developing and emerging countries.

Less synchronised growth, rising uncertainties

Global growth is expected to clock in at 3.8% in 2018 and slow to 3.6% in 2019; a rate of expansion that is still firm and comparable to that of 2017 (+ 3.7%). That said, growth is less synchronized. Activity in Europe remains above trend, but is softening in the wake of the deceleration of world trade, while fiscal stimulus measures are prolonging the expansion in the United States.

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Economic analysis.

Asia: growth jeopardised by the trade war

Trade tensions between China and the United States represent a major risk for the export-oriented Asian region. Economies can be affected via the global value chain, Chinese growth and competitive devaluation (although the latter is unlikely). Only India is less vulnerable to this risk.

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Monetary Policy

Monetary Policy: back to normal?

The 2008 financial crisis witnessed unprecedented policy responses from the world’s major central banks. Main central banks cut their policy rate to near 0%, exhausting the conventional monetary options. Then, to further ease financial conditions, they started to design a variety of unorthodox monetary policy tools commonly labelled as “unconventional monetary policies”. These have included “lower-for-longer” forward guidance on the short-term rate, large-scale asset purchases, large-scale liquidity provis.

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More EcoNote studies

11/2017 - Trade globalisation: going into reverse?

04/2017 - Italy: companies' difficulties are hampering investment and growth potential

03/2017 - “Super-aged” nations and inflation: case studies

12/2016 - Housing in Europe: are there any overheated markets?

11/2016 - Population aging: Risk of deflation or inflation?

11/2016 - Emerging markets’ external debt: it’s the same old song?

09/2016 - US public debt: towards more domestic and private financing

07/2016 - China: assessing the global impact of a Chinese slowdown

06/2016 - France: A private sector in better financial health, despite higher debt

03/2016 - A world without inflation

09/2015 - Low interest rates: the "new normal"?

03/2015 - Euro zone: in the grip of ‘secular stagnation’?

02/2015 - Emerging oil producing countries: which are the most vulnerable to the decline in oil price?

01/2015 - Germany: Not a “bazaar” but a factory!

09/2014 - Euro zone: is the crisis over?

05/2014 - Eurozone: corporate financing via market, an uneven development

01/2014 : Ireland: End of the bailout program - Now what?

12/2013 - The euro zone: Falling into a liquidity trap?

11/2013 - Rising public debt in Japan: how far is too far?

09/2013 - Netherlands: at the periphery of core countries

06/2013 - US: Becoming a LNG exporter

06/2013 - France: Why has the current account balance deteriorated for more than 10 years?

05/2013 - US energy independence

04/2013 - Developed countries: who holds public debt?

04/2013 - China: the growth debate

04/2013 - China: housing property prices: failing to see the forest for the trees

02/2013 - Financing governments debt: a vehicle for the (dis)integration of the eurozone?

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