Quarterly economic forecasts for the main developing and emerging countries.

Investment holds the key

Global activity remains strong. Sentiment indicators point to continued expansion in 2018 and firm manufacturing activity supported by a pickup in investment. In the US, a large fiscal impulse will extend the business cycle. With key markets approaching full employment, GDP growth may be constrained by supply-side constraints, giving rise to some inflationary pressures.

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Economic analysis.

Monetary Policy

Monetary Policy: back to normal?

The 2008 financial crisis witnessed unprecedented policy responses from the world’s major central banks. Main central banks cut their policy rate to near 0%, exhausting the conventional monetary options. Then, to further ease financial conditions, they started to design a variety of unorthodox monetary policy tools commonly labelled as “unconventional monetary policies”. These have included “lower-for-longer” forward guidance on the short-term rate, large-scale asset purchases, large-scale liquidity provis.

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Trade globalisation: going into reverse?

Globalisation has been the dominant force in the development of the world economy in the post-Cold War era, making the world’s economies more interconnected and more inter-dependent than ever before. This wave of globalisation is the second in the past 200 years. The first wave began in the first half of the 19th century, powered by a combination of technological breakthroughs and liberal trade policy in continental Europe. It collapsed when the Great Depression of the 1930s led to a widespread retreat into protectionism.

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More EcoNote studies

04/2017 - Italy: companies' difficulties are hampering investment and growth potential

03/2017 - “Super-aged” nations and inflation: case studies

12/2016 - Housing in Europe: are there any overheated markets?

11/2016 - Population aging: Risk of deflation or inflation?

11/2016 - Emerging markets’ external debt: it’s the same old song?

09/2016 - US public debt: towards more domestic and private financing

07/2016 - China: assessing the global impact of a Chinese slowdown

06/2016 - France: A private sector in better financial health, despite higher debt

03/2016 - A world without inflation

09/2015 - Low interest rates: the "new normal"?

03/2015 - Euro zone: in the grip of ‘secular stagnation’?

02/2015 - Emerging oil producing countries: which are the most vulnerable to the decline in oil price?

01/2015 - Germany: Not a “bazaar” but a factory!

09/2014 - Euro zone: is the crisis over?

05/2014 - Eurozone: corporate financing via market, an uneven development

01/2014 : Ireland: End of the bailout program - Now what?

12/2013 - The euro zone: Falling into a liquidity trap?

11/2013 - Rising public debt in Japan: how far is too far?

09/2013 - Netherlands: at the periphery of core countries

06/2013 - US: Becoming a LNG exporter

06/2013 - France: Why has the current account balance deteriorated for more than 10 years?

05/2013 - US energy independence

04/2013 - Developed countries: who holds public debt?

04/2013 - China: the growth debate

04/2013 - China: housing property prices: failing to see the forest for the trees

02/2013 - Financing governments debt: a vehicle for the (dis)integration of the eurozone?

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