Quarterly economic forecasts for the main developing and emerging countries.

December 2017 - More life in the expansion

We expect the economic momentum to be upheld in 2018. Tax cuts in the United States, still accommodative monetary policies and the dynamics of the cycle offer further life to the global expansion.
From 2019, global growth is likely to decelerate amid with the gradual normalisation of monetary policies in the major advanced economies, fading impetus from the US tax cuts and moderately higher inflation.

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Economic analysis.

Trade globalisation: going into reverse?

Globalisation has been the dominant force in the development of the world economy in the post-Cold War era, making the world’s economies more interconnected and more inter-dependent than ever before. This wave of globalisation is the second in the past 200 years. The first wave began in the first half of the 19th century, powered by a combination of technological breakthroughs and liberal trade policy in continental Europe. It collapsed when the Great Depression of the 1930s led to a widespread retreat into protectionism.

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Italy: companies' difficulties are hampering investment and growth potential

Italian companies' financial situation started to deteriorate from the 2000s, with the end of productivity gains in the Italian economy. The increase in unit labour costs and the continued erosion of their competitiveness weakened companies’ returns. All the while, labour market rigidities substantially restricted their ability to adjust. As a result, there was a sharp decline in corporate margins.

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More EcoNote studies

03/2017 - “Super-aged” nations and inflation: case studies

12/2016 - Housing in Europe: are there any overheated markets?

11/2016 - Population aging: Risk of deflation or inflation?

11/2016 - Emerging markets’ external debt: it’s the same old song?

09/2016 - US public debt: towards more domestic and private financing

07/2016 - China: assessing the global impact of a Chinese slowdown

06/2016 - France: A private sector in better financial health, despite higher debt

03/2016 - A world without inflation

09/2015 - Low interest rates: the "new normal"?

03/2015 - Euro zone: in the grip of ‘secular stagnation’?

02/2015 - Emerging oil producing countries: which are the most vulnerable to the decline in oil price?

01/2015 - Germany: Not a “bazaar” but a factory!

09/2014 - Euro zone: is the crisis over?

05/2014 - Eurozone: corporate financing via market, an uneven development

01/2014 : Ireland: End of the bailout program - Now what?

12/2013 - The euro zone: Falling into a liquidity trap?

11/2013 - Rising public debt in Japan: how far is too far?

09/2013 - Netherlands: at the periphery of core countries

06/2013 - US: Becoming a LNG exporter

06/2013 - France: Why has the current account balance deteriorated for more than 10 years?

05/2013 - US energy independence

04/2013 - Developed countries: who holds public debt?

04/2013 - China: the growth debate

04/2013 - China: housing property prices: failing to see the forest for the trees

02/2013 - Financing governments debt: a vehicle for the (dis)integration of the eurozone?

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