2026: a year to test the economy’s resilience

2026 is set to be shaped by increasingly divergent forces in the global economy. On one side, sustained investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI), energy and defence is generating resilience. On the other, tariffs, geoeconomic fragmentation, ongoing conflicts, high public‑debt burdens in several major economies, and a series of political and institutional uncertainties are amplifying downside risks.

These forces were already at work in 2025, and the balance of developments ultimately tilted towards resilience. Yet even if events follow a similar script in 2026, several of the underlying supportive factors that proved decisive in 2025 are likely to fade.

Artificial intelligence, a powerful driver in 2025, but a less reliable source of support in 2026

Top of this list is AI, which proved a major support for the global economy in 2025, particularly in the US. AI is estimated to have contributed 1.0pp to GDP growth, with roughly 0.5pp stemming from AI related investments (adjusted for import content) and a similar contribution through wealth gains that underpinned household spending. While we still expect firm investment this year, the key question is whether the pace of spending will be sufficient to deliver another percentage‑point boost to the US economy in 2026.

Moreover, while AI is set to deliver important productivity gains, our expectation is that these will take time to materialise at the macroeconomic level. A further concern stems from the observed weak or negative job creation in AI‑adjacent sectors in the US. Although this could prove transitory, the broader labour‑market dynamics are a clear source of risk. Whereas the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) investment boom of the 1990s was strongly labour‑complementing, AI is – at least in part – labour‑substituting.

Financial conditions: a diminishing source of support amid mounting debt pressures

Easing financing conditions also delivered meaningful support to the global economy in 2025, yet we see limited room for further easing in 2026. Weak public debt dynamics have contributed to higher term premia on bond yields in several major economies, and not least Japan, the US and France, with spillover to global markets.

Finally, the downward trend in oil prices seen since the 2022 peak is unlikely to extend much further. Geopolitical risks, moreover, present clear upside risks to energy prices.

In considering possible surprises for 2026, one of the most significant upside risks stems from a faster‑than‑expected acceleration of European integration, with the potential fast‑tracking of several key unions – be it banking, savings and investment, energy or defence. Such a shift would not only support near‑term growth through stronger investment but also bolster Europe’s structural resilience for decades to come.