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December 2016 - CYCLICAL RECOVERY, FULL OF RISKS
Activity is picking up further in the United States and in emerging countries, supporting the recovery in international trade.
The acceleration of GDP growth expected in 2017 and 2018 is set to remain modest and fragile, as political uncertainties are likely to remain elevated…
… and the “Trump” stimulus’ effects are likely to be dampened by faster policy interest rate hikes in the United States, which would also penalize emerging market economies.