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September 2014 - WAITING FOR 2015…

The global economy disappointed in the first-half of 2014. Instead of gathering momentum as initially expected, GDP growth stalled in most countries and even recorded one or two quarters of decline in some of them (such as the US, Japan and Germany, but also Brazil, Russia and Romania). Nevertheless, the trend is still leaning toward a slow pick-up in global growth. On the whole, major central banks remain inclined to maintain highly accommodative monetary policies, especially since inflation remains low. However, in 2015, their policies would take different paths, with the ECB easing further while the Fed and the BoE are set to begin very gradually raising their key interest rates. Rising geopolitical tensions add to uncertainty.

ScenarioEco - September 2014