Subscribe to the Economic studies series


The year began with the impression that the divergences in growth regimes, between the United States and the rest of the world, as well as in monetary policies were set to last. Doubts have emerged on all these factors over the last three months causing a correction in bond markets and a curb on the dollar’s appreciation against all currencies. That said, US growth seems to be strengthening even though downside risks remain. Eurozone growth is expected to gradually accelerate but is likely to remain subject to uncertainties, such as a deepening of the Greek crisis. Emerging countries look set to continue on their trend towards a gradual slowdown even though bad news from China cannot be ruled out. In this environment, the conduit of monetary policies is likely to become complicated. The keyword for the coming months is therefore likely to be volatility.

Download ScenarioEco